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Here’s What’s Really Happening with India’s Trade — And Why It Matters

Trade data can be noisy. But zoom out, and a clear story emerges: India is importing smart and exporting smarter.

The Import Side: Inputs, Not Indulgence
India’s top imports today are not just oil or gold—they’re building blocks:

  • Electronic components
  • Machinery and base metals
  • Chemicals and ores

These aren’t luxury buys. They’re inputs for domestic manufacturing. For instance, electronic component imports have grown over 36% CAGR in the last 3 years—not because India is buying more gadgets, but because it’s assembling them.

The Export Side: From Commodities to Competence
Ten years ago, India mostly exported low-value items. Today, it’s a different basket:

  • Refined petroleum
  • Specialty chemicals
  • Electronics
  • Machinery
  • Transport equipment

Petroleum exports are up 54% in three years. Electronics exports jumped from ₹0.4 trillion to ₹2.3 trillion in under a decade. That’s not a tweak. That’s transformation.

What’s Powering the Shift?
Two key drivers:

  1. Make in India — Policy tailwinds that pushed manufacturing scale
  2. PLI Schemes — Sector-specific incentives that rewarded local production and exports

This Is Production-Led Globalisation
India is no longer importing to consume. It’s importing to build. And it’s exporting with value-add, not just volume.

Why It Matters to Investors
This is not just trade data. This is industrial upgrading in action. The delta lies in the direction:

  • Import mix = future factory buildout
  • Export mix = product sophistication

For long-term capital, that’s a structural growth story in motion.


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